The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0%, a 0.2 percentage point cut from its earlier projection of 3.2%. The downgrade is attributed to a decline in global crude oil prices, which remain a significant driver of Nigeria's economy.

The updated figures were published in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released in Washington, DC, during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. The report outlines global and regional economic trends, highlighting continued vulnerability among oil-dependent economies.

According to the IMF, growth across sub-Saharan Africa is also expected to experience a modest decline, with projections falling from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025. However, a slight recovery is anticipated in 2026, with growth forecasted at 4.2%.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, was singled out in the report as among the major economies affected by falling oil prices. The IMF noted that the country's 2026 growth forecast has also been revised downward by 0.3 percentage points.

The IMF further reported similar economic challenges in other African countries. In South Africa, growth projections were adjusted downward by 0.5 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026. These revisions reflect weakening economic momentum following a lacklustre 2024, growing uncertainty, a rise in protectionist economic policies, and the impact of a broader global slowdown.

In a more severe adjustment, the IMF slashed South Sudan’s 2025 economic growth forecast by a staggering 31.5 percentage points. The sharp decline is linked to delays in the resumption of oil production after a major pipeline sustained damage, significantly impacting the country’s revenue and export capacity.

The IMF’s outlook underscores the fragility of economies heavily reliant on natural resources and the ongoing risks posed by global market volatility.