On 24th August a video surfaced featuring the Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau boasting about his organization's exploits in northeast Nigeria. Shekau went on to state that the town of Gwoza, an area with a Christian population, is now under Boko Haram control and ruled by 'Islamic law.'

The statement was surprising in that, until recently, Boko Haram has made little attempt to hold territory during the course of its five year struggle, and Shekau's words echoed the Islamic State's declaration of a caliphate under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in late June.

However, while Shekau's video likely falls short of the establishment of a caliphate in the ever expanding areas of northern Nigeria under the organization's sway, it does suggest a significant evolution in Boko Haram's strategy, with severe consequences for the Lake Chad region.

Despite being widely reported, an analysis from the Long War Journal concluded that Shekau likely did not declare a caliphate, while other outlets have been careful to translate his statement on Gwoza as an area that is now 'Muslim territory' under Islamic law. Such interpretations fall in line with the fact that Shekau mentioned an Islamic state or law only twice during his 23-minute speech. Rather, the majority of the statement dealt with common themes revolving around threatening youth vigilante groups collectively referred to as the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF), criticizing democracy, and countering the Nigerian Army's narrative on recent events, in the northeastern town of Damboa.

In this sense, the somewhat confusing nature of Shekau's words regarding Islamic rule and law, suggests that an official caliphate declaration was likely not the message's intention, with the video rather serving as part of a pattern of somewhat steady updates on Boko Haram's progress.

In addition, it is highly unlikely that Shekau was declaring allegiance to the Islamic State (IS). In a July 2014 video, Shekau referenced 'Al Baghdad,' his first explicit comments related to IS. However, Shekau mentioned Al-Baghdad amidst a host of other jihadist leaders (including Mullah Omar and Sheikh Al-Zawahiri), and made no mention of the split between IS and al Qaeda, the latter ofwhich Boko Haram has claimed support from in the past.

In this sense, Shekau was likely seeking to bolster his jihadist credentials by sending greetings to other similar international figures or organizations, a practice not uncommon in recent statements, rather than specifically aligning himself with the Islamic State.

The Lead up to Territorial Control

Even if a caliphate declaration was not the intent of Shekau's message, his assertions regarding territorial control of Gwoza are something new. One of Boko Haram's goals has been to replace the Nigerian Government, democracy, and constitution with an administration ruled by sharia law. While objectives have evolved over time, messaging regarding this point has been consistent over the past few years.

Nonetheless, the movement demonstrated little appetite to undertake such a venture until recently. In July 2014, the organization moved on Damboa, though despite Shekau's claims to the contrary, has been pushed from there since. Boko Haram has, however, in past few weeks undertaken an astonishing territorial push, reportedly occupying Buni Yadi and Bara in Yobe state, Madagali in Adamawa state, and Gwoza, Banki, Gamboru-Ngala, Ashigashiya, and Kerawa in Borno state among other locations, some of which lie directly on the border with Cameroon.