Analysts are beginning to express fear at the success of Nigeria’s 2025 budget as there has been a drop in the price of oil in the international market.

As of March 1, 2025, Nigeria’s Brent crude was $72.77 per barrel as against the $75 per barrel benchmark in the 2025 budget.

Nigeria’s 2025 budget sets an ambitious crude oil production target of 2.06mbpd and a benchmark price of $75 per barrel, but significant challenges are threatening its feasibility.

According to analysts at Financial Derivatives Company, there is danger lurking at the corner for the President Bola Tinubu’s administration as oil price below the budget benchmark of $75pb will lower oil revenue and could increase government borrowing.

As of March 1, 2025, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was $69.76 per barrel while the price of Brent crude oil stood at $72.77 per barrel.

The price of light crude oil futures was $70.03 per barrel. The price of WTI crude oil futures for March 20, 2025 was $70.23 per barrel. The price of Brent crude oil on February 13, 2025 was $75.02 per barrel.

The price of WTI crude oil on February 28, 2025 was $70.12 per barrel. In the FDC’s commodities update for the month of February, Brent futures rose 0.34% ($72.78pb) after Trump canceled Chevron Venezuela’s licence, Dangote refinery slashed pump price of petrol by 7.03% to N860/ litre from N925/litre.

The naira also appreciated by 0.27 percent to N1,492/$ (parallel market) due to increase in forex supply while LNG lost 4.24 percent ($4.00/MMBtu) on milder weather, as Shell forecasts a 60 percent rise in LNG demand by 2040. Cocoa climbed 4.70 percent ($9,219.00/mt) driven by short-covering and ongoing supply concerns.

Significantly, domestic commodity prices are mixed due to consumer resistance and seasonality effects.

A bag of garri rose by 2.86 percent to N33,000, consumers News gained 5 percent in the price of rice (50kg) when it sold at N95,000 in February.

A basket of tomatoes rose by 33.33 percent tsell at N40,000 from N30,000 in January.

A bag of pepper, which sold at N80,000 in January is now N120,000, representing a 50 percent increase while the price of a bag of beans which was N105,000 in January went down by 4.76 percent to sell at N100,000 in February.

In their analysis, a rise in cocoa will increase non-export revenue and income of farmers, a PMS price at N860/litre will reduce transportation and logistics cost.

They, however, stressed that the drop in the oil market may likely continue and prices likely “to remain bearish on expectation of supply boost”.

Looking ahead, analysts at FDC said, “We see that grain prices are expected to be bullish due to unfavourable weather in the U.S, cocoa prices are likely to remain bullish as constraints in Ivory Coast’s production persists.

“The price of sugar will remain elevated in the coming weeks on lower crop yields in Brazil due to the drought and wildfire, supported by global supply concern” .